{"id":1202,"date":"2026-05-26T17:22:27","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T21:22:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/scootercam.net\/blog\/?p=1202"},"modified":"2026-05-26T17:22:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T21:22:29","slug":"scout-updates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scootercam.net\/blog\/scout-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"Scout Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Scootercam’s MLB Scout continues to evolve. Originally it was a tool to help predict those days when both<\/em> the White Sox and Cubs pitchers would win their games, and I was interested in building a only go\/no-go decision maker for that combo bet. So with 4 outcomes I was leaving a bit on the table if I didn’t explore the other three outcomes. I brought in data from Kalshi – what are actual bettors thinking? Is it possible to compare Scootercam’s MLB Scout scores with what the market is saying? Does Scout have any sort of edge, or just noise?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scout Quadrant Lean \u2014 Summary & Practical Use Guide<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

ScooterCam Worldwide LLC \u2014 MLB Scout<\/strong> Session date: May 26, 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Background<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The MLB Scout tool was originally designed to answer one question: is today a good day for both the Cubs and Sox to win?<\/em> The combo score \u2014 the minimum of the two individual pitcher scores \u2014 drives a binary PLAY\/PASS recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The work in this session grew from a single observation: a PASS on the combo is not the same as no edge<\/em>. When the Kalshi payout matrix shows positive returns across all four outcome quadrants, the market is pricing every outcome as profitable. If Scout is saying PASS, it is identifying something the market may be underweighting \u2014 namely, that one pitcher is significantly stronger or weaker than the other. That asymmetry doesn’t disappear on a PASS day. It rotates to a different quadrant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This led to two related questions:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. Validity<\/strong> \u2014 does Scout’s directional lean actually predict the correct quadrant better than Kalshi’s market pricing?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Reliability<\/strong> \u2014 is that edge consistent, or noise?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Both questions require data that wasn’t being collected. This session built the collection infrastructure and the display layer, timed to accumulate a meaningful sample before the All-Star break.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n\n\n\n

    Changes Made<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    1. Scout Quadrant Lean strip \u2014 mlb-scout.php<\/code><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    What was added:<\/strong> A new UI section inserted between the existing GONOGO bar and the Kalshi payout matrix inside the Next Combo block.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What it shows:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Individual pitcher score chips for Cubs and Sox (color-coded by tier)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • The point differential when the lean is directional (WL or LW cases)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • A compact 2\u00d72 grid of the four outcome quadrants \u2014 WW, WL, LW, LL \u2014 with the Scout-favored quadrant highlighted in green with a SCOUT tag<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Kalshi joint probabilities in each cell when market data is available<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • A one-sentence explanation of why Scout leans that direction<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Rendering logic (render_scout_lean()<\/code>):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Condition<\/th>Lean<\/th>Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
      Combo score \u2265 58<\/td>WW<\/td>Both pitchers favorable \u2014 standard PLAY day<\/td><\/tr>
      Cubs score \u2212 Sox score > 15<\/td>WL<\/td>Cubs face weak pitcher, Sox face strong one<\/td><\/tr>
      Sox score \u2212 Cubs score > 15<\/td>LW<\/td>Sox face weak pitcher, Cubs face strong one<\/td><\/tr>
      Both scores \u2264 35<\/td>LL<\/td>Both teams face strong pitchers \u2014 tough day all around<\/td><\/tr>
      Difference \u2264 15, neither in LL zone<\/td>(hidden)<\/em><\/td>No clear directional signal<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      The strip is hidden entirely when no signal exists \u2014 no empty placeholder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Sub-text varies by lean type<\/strong> so the language is always accurate:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • WW: “Combo play confirmed \u2014 both pitchers support the call”<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • WL\/LW: “Not a combo play \u2014 Cubs\/Sox pitcher advantage points to a quadrant”<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • LL: “Not a combo play \u2014 both teams face tough pitchers today”<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        Why the strip sits between GONOGO and the payout matrix:<\/strong> The GONOGO bar answers the combo question. The lean strip answers a different question. The payout matrix then shows the financial context for all four quadrants. Each layer adds something distinct; the order reflects the analytical hierarchy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The SCOUT tag also appears on the matching cell in the payout matrix<\/strong>, visually linking the two sections without duplicating data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n\n\n\n

        2. Divergence tracking \u2014 mlb-cache-cron.php<\/code><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        What was added:<\/strong> Five new fields written to sc_bet_tracker.json<\/code> for every combo day. Two new helper functions. A three-branch freeze logic block. An updated cron schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        New tracker fields<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
        Field<\/th>Type<\/th>Description<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
        scout_lean<\/code><\/td>string|null<\/td>WW \/ WL \/ LW \/ LL, derived from pitcher scores<\/td><\/tr>
        kalshi_cubs_yes<\/code><\/td>float|null<\/td>Cubs win probability captured before first pitch<\/td><\/tr>
        kalshi_sox_yes<\/code><\/td>float|null<\/td>Sox win probability captured before first pitch<\/td><\/tr>
        kalshi_implied_lean<\/code><\/td>string|null<\/td>Highest joint-probability quadrant per Kalshi market<\/td><\/tr>
        kalshi_pregame_captured<\/code><\/td>bool<\/td>Data quality flag<\/strong> \u2014 true only when both prices captured before game 1 first pitch<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        Why the freeze timing matters<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

        Kalshi keeps markets open until a game ends. A team losing 7-0 in the eighth inning may show at 3% \u2014 a real price, but not a pre-game belief. Capturing that would corrupt the divergence comparison, which is meant to pit Scout’s pre-game read against the market’s pre-game read.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The cron uses a three-branch pattern to prevent this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • Branch 1 (post-freeze):<\/strong> Entry already frozen in a previous run. All five fields preserved unchanged. No Kalshi fetch.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Branch 2 (at freeze moment):<\/strong> Game 1 just started this cron cycle. Kalshi prices are now in-game. The prices from the previous pre-game cron run are carried forward instead. If no pre-game prices exist, the fields stay null and kalshi_pregame_captured<\/code> stays false \u2014 honest, not papered over.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Branch 3 (pre-game):<\/strong> Game hasn’t started. Fresh Kalshi prices and lean computed and stored. kalshi_pregame_captured<\/code> set to true if both prices are non-null.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          The combo score freeze follows the same lifecycle and is unchanged from the original.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Cron schedule update<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

          Old:<\/strong> 0 9,15 * * *<\/code> \u2014 twice daily (9 AM and 3 PM server time)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          New:<\/strong> 0 9,12,15,18 * * *<\/code> \u2014 four times daily (9 AM, noon, 3 PM, 6 PM)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The noon run was the critical addition. For day games starting at 1:05\u20132:20 PM ET, Kalshi typically lists markets 2\u20133 hours before first pitch \u2014 roughly 10:30\u201311:30 AM ET. The 9 AM cron was consistently too early; the 3 PM cron arrived after first pitch. The noon run catches this window cleanly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The 6 PM run covers evening games (7:05\u20138:10 PM ET first pitch) as a belt-and-suspenders companion to the 3 PM run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          If GlowHost server time is UTC rather than ET:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n